Τετάρτη 27 Νοεμβρίου 2024

Are the European Greens' leadership in strategic confusion?

  

The European Greens' misguided intervention in the U.S. presidential elections highlights their dead-end strategy in addressing the problems of European citizens.

On November 1, just four days before the U.S. presidential elections, the European Greens issued a public statement[i] calling on Jill Stein[ii], the Green Party presidential candidate, to withdraw from the race in favor of Kamala Harris.

The final U.S. election results have demonstrated how misguided and unacceptable the EGP’s intervention was.

Why it was misguided:

  • Diminishing Jill’s results didn’t prevent Kamala’s defeat. Of course, there was a slight possibility that the difference between Kamala's and Trump’s votes could have been smaller than Jill’s. However, such mathematical coincidences are rare, and it makes no sense to base our political strategies on them.
  • Politics isn’t mathematics. The EGP’s decision seems to ignore voters’ motivations: Why would a Biden supporter switch to Trump, abstain, or vote for Stein instead of backing Kamala? Did the EGP try to understand voters’ tendencies before asking Jill to withdraw? The EGP disregarded voters who had abstained in previous elections and, more critically, ignored people completely disillusioned with the Biden-Kamala administration. In this election, the Democrats lost over 13 million voters, who mostly did not vote for Trump (since he also lost over 1.5 million voters compared to his 2020 total). The EGP leadership has shown itself to be totally incapable of understanding the political reality in the U.S. The final results show that these elections were a prime opportunity to attract some of those 13 million disappointed voters to the Green ideas—a chance the EGP undermined. I cannot predict how many voters responded to the EGP’s appeal and ultimately voted for Kamala. Millions of Americans have families in Ireland, Germany, or other countries where the EGP has a strong presence. It is beyond my role to quantify the damage, but as a politically engaged person, I find it difficult to decide which is worse: the possibility that the European Greens have such respect that they created significant harm, or that the damage was minimal because people no longer respect the European Greens’ recommendations.
  • The EGP’s reasoning fails to consider the deep and dangerous divisions in U.S. society. It views Trump as a threat, ignoring that "Trumpism" predates Trump’s presidential run, as explored in the insightful book How Democracies Die. The Democrats are equally responsible for fostering these divisions. The latest election results reveal just how disconnected the EGP leadership is from U.S. society—and, I fear, from European society as well. Similar trends appear in Europe, where recent election outcomes show the EGP leadership as ill-equipped to address or confront these issues and incapable of offering attractive alternatives to voters.

Why it was unacceptable:

  • If the U.S. Greens had decided to withdraw and support Kamala, it would have been a mistake for the reasons outlined above, but we would respect their decision. However, the EGP’s external intervention violates Green principles. It recalls the Third Communist International, where Russian Bolsheviks controlled the labor movements in Greece, Spain, and elsewhere. Such "politburo-style" thinking, which assumes a sort of "papal infallibility," led to tragedies like the Greek Civil War of 1946–1949. Greens fundamentally oppose this mindset. A core Green principle is that what works best in Germany could be disastrous for Greece. Seeking an absolute “right or wrong” solution is as absurd as deciding …whether feathers or fur is better for animals in natural ecosystems. This is why our movement isn’t bound by orthodoxy, unlike Marxists, neoliberals, or Keynesians.
  • I would like to remind you of the EGP’s internal crisis in 2005 over whether to support the European Constitution. Con Bèndit advocated for a unified EGP campaign in favor of the draft constitution, but for member parties in Greece, Sweden, or Ireland, such a campaign could have been disastrous. Fortunately, at an extraordinary council in Brussels, the EGP accepted an amendment from the Greek Greens acknowledging the right of some parties to campaign against the constitution. Reinhard Bütikofer’s intervention in support of this amendment was pivotal. A majority that respects and acknowledges a legitimate minority view is a triumph of Green principles. Unfortunately, it seems that today’s EGP leadership has slipped into dangerous intolerance.
  • Far more troubling is the EGP’s rationale for its appeal: the U.S. electoral system. In many countries (e.g., the UK, and Greece), the largest party wins a majority in parliament, even without a majority of the popular vote. In some authoritarian regimes, it’s nearly impossible for small parties to influence central politics. In such systems, having a few parliamentary seats often doesn’t affect major decisions that are guided by other factors like corruption and clientelism. Many voters see voting for a small party as “wasting their vote.” What exactly is the EGP suggesting? Do they admit that in these countries, like USA or Greece, it’s useless for a Green party to participate in elections, and instead they should support a chosen larger party as the “lesser evil”?

Last but not least: Could supporting the Democrats benefit the U.S. Greens?

Yes, but to ensure a win-win result, some crucial conditions are necessary: Kamala would need to officially acknowledge the Green Party’s support by possibly offering a House seat, including Green advisors in ministries, and making specific policy commitments. In similar situations, political alliances can produce surprising results: 1+1 could equal 3, 4, or even 5. However, if the alliance appears opportunistic, 1+1 might equal 1 or even less. Such alliances must be based on compelling reasoning and goals that could inspire citizens. Otherwise, even core voters of both parties may be disappointed and abstain. Alliances like this must be discussed thoroughly within the U.S. Greens, including members and supporters, to avoid perceptions of betrayal. Most importantly, political decisions like this require long time to explain and communicate to the public. In the case of the EGP’s appeal just days before the election, Kamala’s need for Green support may have seemed more like desperation than a genuine alliance.

What are the real reasons behind the EGP’s appeal?

The EGP’s decision was not based on thorough research or discussions with the U.S. Greens and Kamala’s office. Searching for logic, I am reminded of the Comte de Buffon’s saying: “An act’s reasoning can be worse than the act itself.”

It seems the EGP leadership is paralyzed by fears over the rise of fascism in Europe. Only a few years ago, we Greens were optimistic, seeing ourselves as the main alternative to the fading traditional political forces. The EU Commission’s “Green Deal” signaled that our proposals were becoming mainstream and the media spoke of a “Green Wave.”

This growing acceptance of Green policies by political and economic institutions led us to a strategic error: instead of building grassroots support and spreading Green proposals among farmers, industry, and the productive base of European societies, we became arrogant. We forgot that Green solutions must first serve the people and address their everyday problems. Instead, we were captivated by our influence over Brussels’ bureaucracy, transforming from advocates for people’s needs into participants in the EU nomenclature.

Meanwhile, nationalists, Euroskeptics, and even fascists seized on growing problems—poverty, inflation, fear of immigration—and cleverly blamed these issues on the Green transition.

We supported Biden’s foreign policy instead of recognizing the risks it posed to European citizens. The invasion of Ukraine is an unacceptable crime, but is military escalation the best response? A similar strategy has been proven disastrous in Afghanistan, as predicted in the 2004 book Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror.

A clearer example: Cyprus's land remains illegally occupied by Turkey since 1974. How “Green” would a proposal be to regain these territories through military escalation? Is it a “Green solution” to propose arming and sacrificing Cypriot youth for the liberation of the island? Does anyone believe that bombing Turkey with ATACMS[iii] would compel Erdogan to withdraw? Even the most fervent Cypriot patriots do not advocate a military solution. Does this mean they condone the invasion?

Now, anyone advocating for a ceasefire in Ukraine is accused of being a Putin supporter. We are sacrificing Ukrainian lives to exterminate Putin, just as we sacrificed Iraqi lives to exterminate Saddam, or Afghan lives to exterminate the Taliban. I fear we have lost our nonviolent identity. During NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia, I said at the 1999 EGP Council in Larnaca: “We’re burning down our house to exterminate the rats.”

During the Cold War, the Greens envisioned an independent Europe fostering mutual respect between nations. Since 1999, we have abandoned this core EU principle. Increasingly, we became part of U.S. policy in Israel, Iraq, China, and beyond, weakening the EU itself. This has made us complicit in the rise of new nationalism across Europe.

All recent European election results show that citizens do not accept our choices. The “Green Wave” has lost its momentum, with people increasingly choosing far-right and even fascist options as the main alternative to neoliberal policies. Instead of self-reflection and rethinking our strategy, we tried to prevent Trump’s victory with a nonsensical decision that undermined our purpose. Rather than promoting our own ideas, we chose to cling to Kamala.

Drowning, we clutch at straws.


[i] https://europeangreens.eu/news/us-elections-european-greens-call-for-jill-stein-to-step-down/

[ii] https://www.jillstein2024.com/

[iii] ATACMS

 

 

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